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Ligue 3 · France
Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Thionville Lusitanos host Versailles in the Ligue 3 (France) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Thionville Lusitanos 1–2 Versailles.
Going into the match, Thionville Lusitanos had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 16. Versailles had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Thionville Lusitanos's last 10 and 4 of Versailles's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Thionville Lusitanos averaged 1.44 goals scored and 2.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Versailles averaged 1.73 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Thionville Lusitanos and 1.57 from Versailles. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 36%, against 26%, 27% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Thionville Lusitanos (green) and Versailles (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thionville Lusitanos | LLDLD | 1.60 | 1.60 | 60% | 60% |
| Versailles | WWDWL | 1.50 | 1.30 | 40% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 3 matches that day
- Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Concarneau vs Bastia · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 - Gobelins vs Rouen · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Quevilly vs Orleans · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Valenciennes vs Amiens · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–1 - Villefranche vs Cannes · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–1