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Ligue 3 · France
Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aubagne host Le Puy Foot in the Ligue 3 (France) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aubagne 0–1 Le Puy Foot.
Going into the match, Aubagne had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Le Puy Foot had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Aubagne's last 10 and 5 of Le Puy Foot's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aubagne averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Le Puy Foot averaged 0.89 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Aubagne and 1.07 from Le Puy Foot. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 35%, against 29%, 28% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aubagne (green) and Le Puy Foot (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubagne | LWLLD | 0.70 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| Le Puy Foot | WLWLD | 1.30 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Apr 2026 · Le Puy Foot 1–2 Aubagne
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 3 matches that day
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Concarneau vs Bastia · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 - Gobelins vs Rouen · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Quevilly vs Orleans · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Valenciennes vs Amiens · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–1 - Villefranche vs Cannes · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–1