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Ligue 3 · France
Concarneau vs Bastia prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Concarneau host Bastia in the Ligue 3 (France) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Concarneau to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Concarneau 1–1 Bastia.
Going into the match, Concarneau had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Bastia had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Concarneau's last 10 and 4 of Bastia's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Concarneau averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Bastia averaged 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Concarneau and 0.69 from Bastia. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 17%, against 47%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Concarneau (green) and Bastia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concarneau | WDWWD | 1.70 | 0.90 | 60% | 40% |
| Bastia | DLDWL | 0.80 | 1.20 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 61% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.62 |
| Concarneau Win | 47% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 3 matches that day
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Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–1