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League Two · England
Newport County vs York prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Newport County host York in the League Two (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Newport County 1–1 York.
Going into the match, Newport County had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. York had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Newport County's last 10 and 7 of York's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Newport County averaged 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home York averaged 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.00 goals from Newport County and 0.95 from York. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 16%, against 25%, 26% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Newport County (green) and York (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | WDDWW | 1.10 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
| York | DWDLL | 1.60 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League Two matches that day
- Accrington ST vs Gillingham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Colchester vs Exeter City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 - Crewe vs Rochdale · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 3–2 - Grimsby vs Northampton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Oldham vs Cheltenham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 4–1 - Port Vale vs Chesterfield · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–0 - Salford City vs Crawley Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Swindon Town vs Walsall · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tranmere vs Barnet · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0 - Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33