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League Two · England
Crewe vs Rochdale prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Crewe host Rochdale in the League Two (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Crewe 3–2 Rochdale.
Going into the match, Crewe had won 3, drawn 7 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Rochdale had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Crewe's last 10 and 4 of Rochdale's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Crewe averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Rochdale averaged 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from Crewe and 0.95 from Rochdale. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 17%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Crewe (green) and Rochdale (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Crewe Win | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League Two matches that day
- Accrington ST vs Gillingham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Colchester vs Exeter City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 - Grimsby vs Northampton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Newport County vs York · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Oldham vs Cheltenham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 4–1 - Port Vale vs Chesterfield · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–0 - Salford City vs Crawley Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Swindon Town vs Walsall · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tranmere vs Barnet · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0 - Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33