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Grimsby vs Northampton prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Grimsby host Northampton in the League Two (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Grimsby 0–2 Northampton.
Going into the match, Grimsby had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Northampton had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Grimsby's last 10 and 4 of Northampton's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Grimsby averaged 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Northampton averaged 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Grimsby and 0.58 from Northampton. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 17%, against 56%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 90%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Grimsby (green) and Northampton (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | LDLLL | 1.30 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| Northampton | DLLLW | 0.50 | 1.20 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Grimsby Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League Two matches that day
- Accrington ST vs Gillingham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Colchester vs Exeter City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 - Crewe vs Rochdale · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 3–2 - Newport County vs York · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Oldham vs Cheltenham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 4–1 - Port Vale vs Chesterfield · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–0 - Salford City vs Crawley Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Swindon Town vs Walsall · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tranmere vs Barnet · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0 - Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33