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League Two · England
Accrington ST vs Gillingham prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Accrington ST host Gillingham in the League Two (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Accrington ST 3–1 Gillingham.
Going into the match, Accrington ST had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. Gillingham had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Accrington ST's last 10 and 6 of Gillingham's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Accrington ST averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Gillingham averaged 1.70 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from Accrington ST and 0.98 from Gillingham. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 25%, against 41%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Accrington ST (green) and Gillingham (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | DDWDD | 1.50 | 1.40 | 70% | 50% |
| Gillingham | WWDLL | 2.00 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League Two matches that day
- Colchester vs Exeter City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 - Crewe vs Rochdale · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 3–2 - Grimsby vs Northampton · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Newport County vs York · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Oldham vs Cheltenham · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 4–1 - Port Vale vs Chesterfield · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–0 - Salford City vs Crawley Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Swindon Town vs Walsall · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tranmere vs Barnet · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0 - Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League Two
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33