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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Castellonense vs La Nucía prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Castellonense host La Nucía in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Castellonense had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 12. La Nucía had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Castellonense's last 10 and 4 of La Nucía's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Castellonense averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home La Nucía averaged 0.71 scored and 0.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Castellonense and 1.24 from La Nucía. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 29%, against 35%, 31% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Castellonense (green) and La Nucía (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellonense | LWLWW | 1.70 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| La Nucía | LLWWW | 1.30 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.81 |
| Castellonense Win | 34% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.90 |
| 1-1 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Castellonense form and statistics
- La Nucía form and statistics
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 statistics
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches that day
- Alcoyano vs Elche II · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 - Cieza vs Valencia II · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 - Intercity vs Real Murcia II · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Intercity Win @ 1.50 - Castellón II vs Deportiva Minera · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.61 - Mallorca II vs Orihuela · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 - Yeclano vs Poblense · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Peña Deportiva vs Ucam Murcia · 18 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals @ 1.35 - Lorca Deportiva vs Atlético Baleares · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.28 · FT 2–2