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UEFA Europa League · International
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Union St. Gilloise host Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad.
Going into the match, Union St. Gilloise had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 6. Real Sociedad had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Union St. Gilloise's last 10 and 7 of Real Sociedad's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Union St. Gilloise averaged 2.50 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Real Sociedad averaged 1.64 scored and 1.93 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.64 goals from Union St. Gilloise and 1.11 from Real Sociedad. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 13%, against 39%, 27% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Union St. Gilloise (green) and Real Sociedad (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | DWWWW | 2.70 | 0.60 | 40% | 70% |
| Real Sociedad | WWLLW | 1.40 | 2.00 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Union St. Gilloise form and statistics
- Real Sociedad form and statistics
- UEFA Europa League statistics
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3