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UEFA Europa League · International
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia.
Going into the match, NEC Nijmegen had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 23. Levski Sofia had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of NEC Nijmegen's last 10 and 3 of Levski Sofia's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home NEC Nijmegen averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Levski Sofia averaged 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.81 goals from NEC Nijmegen and 1.62 from Levski Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 55%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between NEC Nijmegen (green) and Levski Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | DDLLD | 1.30 | 2.30 | 70% | 80% |
| Levski Sofia | WLDLW | 1.60 | 1.10 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–1 - Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.91 · FT 3–0 - Celta Vigo vs Juventus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–3 - Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Jagiellonia Win @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–1 - Rennes vs OFI · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3 - Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–4