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UEFA Europa League · International
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Marseille host Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Going into the match, Marseille had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 16. Olympiakos Piraeus had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Marseille's last 10 and 4 of Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Marseille averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Olympiakos Piraeus averaged 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.93 goals from Marseille and 1.12 from Olympiakos Piraeus. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 38%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Marseille (green) and Olympiakos Piraeus (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | WLLLL | 1.60 | 1.60 | 60% | 70% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | WWWLW | 1.50 | 0.60 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–1 - Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.91 · FT 3–0 - Celta Vigo vs Juventus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–3 - Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Jagiellonia Win @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Rennes vs OFI · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3 - Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–4