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UEFA Europa League · International
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jagiellonia host Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Jagiellonia Win — Jagiellonia to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia.
Going into the match, Jagiellonia had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 18. Ararat-Armenia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Jagiellonia's last 10 and 6 of Ararat-Armenia's last 10; 9 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jagiellonia averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Ararat-Armenia averaged 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.79 goals from Jagiellonia and 0.95 from Ararat-Armenia. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 19%, against 68%, 20% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jagiellonia (green) and Ararat-Armenia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | LLWLL | 1.90 | 1.80 | 80% | 90% |
| Ararat-Armenia | DWWLW | 1.70 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Jagiellonia Win | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3 - Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–4