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UEFA Europa League · International
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Going into the match, AZ Alkmaar had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 9. Hapoel Beer Sheva had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10 and 5 of Hapoel Beer Sheva's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AZ Alkmaar averaged 2.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Hapoel Beer Sheva averaged 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.09 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 0.96 from Hapoel Beer Sheva. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 16%, against 73%, 16% and 11% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AZ Alkmaar (green) and Hapoel Beer Sheva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | LWLDW | 2.20 | 0.90 | 40% | 40% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | WWDWL | 1.40 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| AZ Alkmaar 1st Half Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| AZ Alkmaar HT & FT | 54% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–1 - Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
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Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3 - Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–4