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UEFA Europa League · International
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bournemouth host Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.91, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz.
Going into the match, Bournemouth had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 18. Sturm Graz had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Bournemouth's last 10 and 5 of Sturm Graz's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bournemouth averaged 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Sturm Graz averaged 1.75 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.80 goals from Bournemouth and 1.09 from Sturm Graz. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 22%, against 80%, 14% and 6% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bournemouth (green) and Sturm Graz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | LLWDW | 1.60 | 1.80 | 80% | 80% |
| Sturm Graz | WWLDW | 1.40 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Bournemouth 1st Half Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Bournemouth HT & FT | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.91 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–1 - Celta Vigo vs Juventus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–3 - Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Jagiellonia Win @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–1 - NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Rennes vs OFI · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3 - Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–4