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UEFA Europa League · International
Benfica vs Celtic prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Benfica host Celtic in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Benfica 4–1 Celtic.
Going into the match, Benfica had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 30 and conceding 7. Celtic had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Benfica's last 10 and 4 of Celtic's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Benfica averaged 3.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Celtic averaged 2.00 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.79 goals from Benfica and 1.38 from Celtic. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 16%, against 76%, 16% and 9% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Benfica (green) and Celtic (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Benfica 1st Half Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Benfica HT & FT | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.91 · FT 3–0 - Celta Vigo vs Juventus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–3 - Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Jagiellonia Win @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–1 - NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Rennes vs OFI · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3 - Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 0–4