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J1 League · Japan
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tokyo Verdy host FC Tokyo in the J1 League (Japan) on 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is FC Tokyo Win — FC Tokyo to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tokyo Verdy 0–4 FC Tokyo.
Going into the match, Tokyo Verdy had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 12. FC Tokyo had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 2 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tokyo Verdy's last 10 and 1 of FC Tokyo's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tokyo Verdy averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home FC Tokyo averaged 1.64 scored and 0.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.55 goals from Tokyo Verdy and 1.64 from FC Tokyo. From that it rates a home win at 11%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 63%, against 18%, 26% and 56% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tokyo Verdy (green) and FC Tokyo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | LDDLD | 0.80 | 1.20 | 40% | 20% |
| FC Tokyo | LWWWW | 2.40 | 0.20 | 10% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · FC Tokyo 2–1 Tokyo Verdy
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| FC Tokyo Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus · 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–1 - Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale · 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki · 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 0–0 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka · 17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70