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J1 League · Japan

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.53Market probability 61%Final score 1–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Kashiwa Reysol host Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League (Japan) on 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Nagoya Grampus.

Going into the match, Kashiwa Reysol had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 16. Nagoya Grampus had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 19 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Kashiwa Reysol's last 10 and 7 of Nagoya Grampus's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kashiwa Reysol averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Nagoya Grampus averaged 1.14 scored and 1.93 conceded across 14.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.24 goals from Kashiwa Reysol and 1.44 from Nagoya Grampus. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 24%, against 58%, 23% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Kashiwa Reysol (green) and Nagoya Grampus (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form75% – 25%
Attack79% – 21%
Defence50% – 50%
Head-to-head50% – 50%
Goals50% – 50%
Overall strength63% – 36%

Form before the match

TeamLast 5ScoredConcededBTTSO2.5
Kashiwa ReysolWWDWW2.501.6060%70%
Nagoya GrampusDWWLL1.501.9070%80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

MarketOur probabilityOdds
Double Chance 1278%1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No77%1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals72%1.28
Under 3.5 Goals61%1.53
Over 2.5 Goals60%1.57
Kashiwa Reysol Win59%1.60
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals59%1.57
BTTS Yes58%1.62

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.

More on this match

Other J1 League matches that day