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J1 League · Japan
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kashima host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League (Japan) on 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki.
Going into the match, Kashima had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 12. V-varen Nagasaki had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Kashima's last 10 and 6 of V-varen Nagasaki's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kashima averaged 2.54 goals scored and 0.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home V-varen Nagasaki averaged 0.93 scored and 1.73 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.29 goals from Kashima and 1.16 from V-varen Nagasaki. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 17%, against 62%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kashima (green) and V-varen Nagasaki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | WWWDW | 2.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
| V-varen Nagasaki | DDLDW | 1.20 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Kashima Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus · 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–1 - Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale · 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 0–0 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: FC Tokyo Win @ 1.65 - Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka · 17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70