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J1 League · Japan
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Kyoto Sanga in the J1 League (Japan) on 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–0 Kyoto Sanga.
Going into the match, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 5. Kyoto Sanga had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 10 and 4 of Kyoto Sanga's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sanfrecce Hiroshima averaged 2.85 goals scored and 0.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kyoto Sanga averaged 0.67 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.15 goals from Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.68 from Kyoto Sanga. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 10%, against 67%, 20% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sanfrecce Hiroshima (green) and Kyoto Sanga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | WWWWW | 2.50 | 0.50 | 30% | 50% |
| Kyoto Sanga | WLDWW | 0.90 | 1.00 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Kyoto Sanga 0–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima HT & FT | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus · 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–1 - Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale · 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki · 17 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 0–0 - Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: FC Tokyo Win @ 1.65 - Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka · 17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70