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UEFA Europa League · International
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sturm Graz host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille.
Going into the match, Sturm Graz had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Marseille had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Sturm Graz's last 10 and 5 of Marseille's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sturm Graz averaged 2.22 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Marseille averaged 1.13 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Sturm Graz and 0.81 from Marseille. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 13%, against 26%, 27% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sturm Graz (green) and Marseille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | WLWWL | 1.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
| Marseille | WLWLL | 1.60 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Bournemouth vs AC Milan · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - Celtic vs Celta Vigo · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–6 - Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–4 - Plzen vs Levski Sofia · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 0–4 - Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Dinamo Zagreb Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–4