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UEFA Europa League · International
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ Alkmaar.
Going into the match, Ararat-Armenia had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 11. AZ Alkmaar had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ararat-Armenia's last 10 and 6 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ararat-Armenia averaged 1.47 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 17 matches; away from home AZ Alkmaar averaged 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Ararat-Armenia and 1.68 from AZ Alkmaar. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 53%, against 15%, 22% and 63% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ararat-Armenia (green) and AZ Alkmaar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia | WLDWW | 1.70 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
| AZ Alkmaar | DWLWL | 2.00 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Bournemouth vs AC Milan · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - Celtic vs Celta Vigo · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–6 - Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–4 - Plzen vs Levski Sofia · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Dinamo Zagreb Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–4 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 4–1