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Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Celje host Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Celje 2–2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Going into the match, Celje had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Red Bull Salzburg had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Celje's last 10 and 4 of Red Bull Salzburg's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Celje averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Red Bull Salzburg averaged 2.43 scored and 0.71 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Celje and 1.72 from Red Bull Salzburg. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 57%, against 16%, 23% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Celje (green) and Red Bull Salzburg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje | DLWDL | 0.60 | 1.30 | 30% | 30% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | WLDLW | 2.10 | 0.90 | 40% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Red Bull Salzburg Win | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Bournemouth vs AC Milan · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Celtic vs Celta Vigo · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–6 - Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–4 - Plzen vs Levski Sofia · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 0–4 - Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Dinamo Zagreb Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–4 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 4–1