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UEFA Europa League · International
Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bournemouth host AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bournemouth 3–0 AC Milan.
Going into the match, Bournemouth had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. AC Milan had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Bournemouth's last 10 and 6 of AC Milan's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bournemouth averaged 2.91 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home AC Milan averaged 1.73 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.29 goals from Bournemouth and 1.06 from AC Milan. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 15%, against 49%, 26% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bournemouth (green) and AC Milan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | WWLLW | 1.80 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
| AC Milan | WWDWL | 2.20 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - Celtic vs Celta Vigo · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–6 - Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–4 - Plzen vs Levski Sofia · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 0–4 - Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Dinamo Zagreb Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–4 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 4–1