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UEFA Europa League · International
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sparta Praha host Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sparta Praha 1–1 Lillestrom.
Going into the match, Sparta Praha had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 30 and conceding 10. Lillestrom had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sparta Praha's last 10 and 6 of Lillestrom's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sparta Praha averaged 2.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Lillestrom averaged 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.37 goals from Sparta Praha and 0.80 from Lillestrom. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 10%, against 71%, 17% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sparta Praha (green) and Lillestrom (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | WWWWW | 3.00 | 1.00 | 40% | 80% |
| Lillestrom | DWLLW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Sparta Praha Win | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| Sparta Praha HT & FT | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–1 - Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.91 · FT 3–0 - Celta Vigo vs Juventus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–3 - Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Jagiellonia Win @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–1 - NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Rennes vs OFI · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3