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Sheffield Utd vs Derby prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sheffield Utd host Derby in the Championship (England) on 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Sheffield Utd had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 15. Derby had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Sheffield Utd's last 10 and 5 of Derby's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sheffield Utd averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Derby averaged 1.31 scored and 1.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.84 goals from Sheffield Utd and 0.63 from Derby. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 11%, against 52%, 26% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sheffield Utd (green) and Derby (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | WLWLL | 1.50 | 1.50 | 60% | 70% |
| Derby | LLDDL | 0.80 | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 May 2026 · Derby 1–2 Sheffield Utd
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Sheffield Utd Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Blackburn vs Wrexham · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Cardiff vs Birmingham · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Lincoln vs Burnley · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Preston vs West Brom · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - QPR vs Swansea · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Stoke City vs Bristol City · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - West Ham vs Southampton · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Wolves vs Watford · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Charlton vs Norwich · 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Portsmouth vs Millwall · 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30