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Portsmouth vs Millwall prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Portsmouth host Millwall in the Championship (England) on 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Portsmouth had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Millwall had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Portsmouth's last 10 and 5 of Millwall's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Portsmouth averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Millwall averaged 1.06 scored and 1.19 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from Portsmouth and 0.96 from Millwall. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 30%, against 39%, 29% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Portsmouth (green) and Millwall (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | DWWLD | 1.30 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
| Millwall | DLWDD | 1.30 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 11.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Blackburn vs Wrexham · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Cardiff vs Birmingham · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Lincoln vs Burnley · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Preston vs West Brom · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - QPR vs Swansea · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Stoke City vs Bristol City · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - West Ham vs Southampton · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Wolves vs Watford · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Charlton vs Norwich · 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Sheffield Utd vs Derby · 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25