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Pafos vs Riga prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pafos host Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pafos 1–1 Riga.
Going into the match, Pafos had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Riga had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Pafos's last 10 and 7 of Riga's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pafos averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Riga averaged 2.15 scored and 1.15 conceded across 20.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Pafos and 1.16 from Riga. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 32%, against 59%, 23% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pafos (green) and Riga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Pafos Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Ajax vs Atalanta · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–0 - Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–0 - SC Braga vs Gent · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: SC Braga Win @ 1.85 · FT 2–0 - Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–4 - FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 0–1 - Monaco vs SC Freiburg · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 3–0 - FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–1 - FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Getafe vs FC Lugano · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–5 - FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjallby AIF · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 1–1 - Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Universitatea Craiova Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–3