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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aarhus host Egnatia Rrogozhinë in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aarhus 1–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
Going into the match, Aarhus had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Egnatia Rrogozhinë had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Aarhus's last 10 and 7 of Egnatia Rrogozhinë's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aarhus averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Egnatia Rrogozhinë averaged 1.67 scored and 1.53 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Aarhus and 1.24 from Egnatia Rrogozhinë. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 29%, against 63%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aarhus (green) and Egnatia Rrogozhinë (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | DLWWD | 1.70 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | WDWWL | 1.80 | 0.80 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Aarhus Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Aarhus form and statistics
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
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