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Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monaco host SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Monaco 3–0 SC Freiburg.
Going into the match, Monaco had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 10. SC Freiburg had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Monaco's last 10 and 8 of SC Freiburg's last 10; 6 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monaco averaged 2.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home SC Freiburg averaged 1.82 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Monaco and 1.50 from SC Freiburg. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 36%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monaco (green) and SC Freiburg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | LWDWD | 1.90 | 1.00 | 70% | 60% |
| SC Freiburg | LWWWD | 3.10 | 1.20 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Ajax vs Atalanta · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–0 - Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–0 - SC Braga vs Gent · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: SC Braga Win @ 1.85 · FT 2–0 - Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–4 - FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 0–1 - FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–1 - FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Getafe vs FC Lugano · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–5 - FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjallby AIF · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 1–1 - Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Universitatea Craiova Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - FK Jablonec vs Brighton · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–0