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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Midtjylland host St. Truiden in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden.
Going into the match, FC Midtjylland had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 9. St. Truiden had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of FC Midtjylland's last 10 and 4 of St. Truiden's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Midtjylland averaged 2.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 14 matches; away from home St. Truiden averaged 1.88 scored and 1.53 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from FC Midtjylland and 0.95 from St. Truiden. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 18%, against 58%, 23% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Midtjylland (green) and St. Truiden (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | WDWDW | 2.60 | 0.90 | 80% | 60% |
| St. Truiden | WWLLL | 2.00 | 1.70 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| FC Midtjylland Win | 57% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- FC Midtjylland form and statistics
- St. Truiden form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
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Published pick: Universitatea Craiova Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - FK Jablonec vs Brighton · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–0