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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
Ajax vs Atalanta prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ajax host Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ajax 2–0 Atalanta.
Going into the match, Ajax had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 33 and conceding 17. Atalanta had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Ajax's last 10 and 6 of Atalanta's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ajax averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Atalanta averaged 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.04 goals from Ajax and 0.97 from Atalanta. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 16%, against 45%, 26% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ajax (green) and Atalanta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 1–1 - Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Universitatea Craiova Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - FK Jablonec vs Brighton · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–0