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FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Thun host HNK Hajduk Split in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split.
Going into the match, FC Thun had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 18. HNK Hajduk Split had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of FC Thun's last 10 and 3 of HNK Hajduk Split's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Thun averaged 1.71 goals scored and 2.07 conceded across 14 matches; away from home HNK Hajduk Split averaged 1.63 scored and 1.31 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from FC Thun and 1.93 from HNK Hajduk Split. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 57%, against 32%, 28% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Thun (green) and HNK Hajduk Split (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | DLLWW | 1.50 | 1.80 | 60% | 50% |
| HNK Hajduk Split | WWWLW | 2.00 | 0.70 | 30% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- FC Thun form and statistics
- HNK Hajduk Split form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
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Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–0