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Major League Soccer · USA
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer (USA) on 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC.
Going into the match, New York Red Bulls had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Toronto FC had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of New York Red Bulls's last 10 and 8 of Toronto FC's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home New York Red Bulls averaged 1.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Toronto FC averaged 0.70 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from New York Red Bulls and 1.38 from Toronto FC. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 47%, 24% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between New York Red Bulls (green) and Toronto FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | LWLWW | 0.90 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| Toronto FC | DWLLL | 1.80 | 2.20 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| New York Red Bulls Win | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Major League Soccer matches that day
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 - Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–1 - San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–1 - Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–0 - Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.48 · FT 1–2 - Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas · 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake · 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 · FT 1–3 - New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Orlando City SC vs DC United · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Major League Soccer
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 1–0