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UEFA Europa League · International
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Going into the match, Lech Poznan had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 15. Bayer Leverkusen had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lech Poznan's last 10 and 6 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 10; 9 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lech Poznan averaged 2.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.64 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Lech Poznan and 1.84 from Bayer Leverkusen. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 49%, against 20%, 23% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lech Poznan (green) and Bayer Leverkusen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | WDWLL | 2.70 | 1.50 | 70% | 90% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | WWWDW | 2.50 | 1.20 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.44 |
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.80 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Benfica vs Celtic · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–1 - Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.91 · FT 3–0 - Celta Vigo vs Juventus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0 - Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–3 - Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Jagiellonia Win @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–1 - NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Rennes vs OFI · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Celje vs Omonia Nicosia · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–3