Home › League stats › National League - North › Merthyr Town vs Morecambe
National League - North · England
Merthyr Town vs Morecambe prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Merthyr Town host Morecambe in the National League - North (England) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Merthyr Town had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Morecambe had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Merthyr Town's last 10 and 5 of Morecambe's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Merthyr Town averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Morecambe averaged 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.05 goals from Merthyr Town and 0.88 from Morecambe. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 28%, against 39%, 26% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | DDLLD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 70% | 30% |
| Morecambe | LLWDW | 1.90 | 0.80 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other National League - North matches that day
- AFC Telford United vs Hebburn Town · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Brackley Town vs Radcliffe · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Buxton · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Darlington 1883 vs Spennymoor Town · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 - Harborough Town vs Worksop Town · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Hednesford Town vs Spalding United · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - King's Lynn Town vs Southport · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Macclesfield vs Hereford · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Marine vs Oxford City · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Scarborough Athletic vs Bedford Town · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - South Shields vs Chester · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44