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National League - North · England
Hednesford Town vs Spalding United prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hednesford Town host Spalding United in the National League - North (England) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Hednesford Town had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 12. Spalding United had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Hednesford Town's last 10 and 5 of Spalding United's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hednesford Town averaged 2.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Spalding United averaged 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Hednesford Town and 1.29 from Spalding United. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 38%, against 47%, 26% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hednesford Town | WWWLL | 1.60 | 1.20 | 70% | 50% |
| Spalding United | LDLWD | 1.70 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Hednesford Town form and statistics
- Spalding United form and statistics
- National League - North statistics
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Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44