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First League · Bulgaria
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lokomotiv Sofia host Botev Vratsa in the First League (Bulgaria) on 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lokomotiv Sofia had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Botev Vratsa had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Lokomotiv Sofia's last 10 and 4 of Botev Vratsa's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lokomotiv Sofia averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Botev Vratsa averaged 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.13 from Botev Vratsa. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 26%, against 50%, 27% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lokomotiv Sofia (green) and Botev Vratsa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | WDWLD | 1.20 | 1.70 | 80% | 60% |
| Botev Vratsa | WLLLD | 0.90 | 1.70 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 May 2026 · Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Botev Vratsa
- 14 Apr 2026 · Botev Vratsa 3–2 Lokomotiv Sofia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.90 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia Win | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Cherno More Varna Win @ 1.62 - CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna · 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33