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First League · Bulgaria
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dunav Ruse host Spartak Varna in the First League (Bulgaria) on 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Dunav Ruse had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 17. Spartak Varna had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Dunav Ruse's last 10 and 4 of Spartak Varna's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dunav Ruse averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Spartak Varna averaged 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Dunav Ruse and 1.38 from Spartak Varna. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 40%, against 39%, 29% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dunav Ruse (green) and Spartak Varna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | WWDLD | 1.50 | 1.70 | 80% | 70% |
| Spartak Varna | WWLDD | 1.00 | 1.50 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Spartak Varna 0–0 Dunav Ruse
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Dunav Ruse Win | 39% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Cherno More Varna Win @ 1.62 - CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33