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First League · Bulgaria
Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arda Kardzhali host Levski Sofia in the First League (Bulgaria) on 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Arda Kardzhali had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 17. Levski Sofia had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Arda Kardzhali's last 10 and 5 of Levski Sofia's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arda Kardzhali averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Levski Sofia averaged 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.60 goals from Arda Kardzhali and 1.62 from Levski Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 13%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 61%, against 19%, 28% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arda Kardzhali (green) and Levski Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | WLLDL | 1.40 | 1.70 | 50% | 50% |
| Levski Sofia | WWDWL | 1.50 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Apr 2026 · Levski Sofia 1–0 Arda Kardzhali
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Levski Sofia Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| Levski Sofia HT & FT | 35% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Cherno More Varna Win @ 1.62 - CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna · 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33