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First League · Bulgaria
Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cherno More Varna host Septemvri Sofia in the First League (Bulgaria) on 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Cherno More Varna Win — Cherno More Varna to win. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Cherno More Varna had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Septemvri Sofia had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Cherno More Varna's last 10 and 5 of Septemvri Sofia's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cherno More Varna averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Septemvri Sofia averaged 0.92 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from Cherno More Varna and 1.08 from Septemvri Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 32%, against 58%, 25% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 37%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cherno More Varna (green) and Septemvri Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | LWLLW | 1.10 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
| Septemvri Sofia | DLLLL | 0.90 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Cherno More Varna Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna · 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33