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First League · Bulgaria
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CSKA Sofia host Ludogorets in the First League (Bulgaria) on 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, CSKA Sofia had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 12. Ludogorets had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 27 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of CSKA Sofia's last 10 and 5 of Ludogorets's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CSKA Sofia averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Ludogorets averaged 1.09 scored and 0.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from CSKA Sofia and 1.23 from Ludogorets. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 35%, against 39%, 28% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CSKA Sofia (green) and Ludogorets (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | DWLWD | 2.30 | 1.20 | 80% | 60% |
| Ludogorets | WWWWW | 2.70 | 0.60 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 May 2026 · Ludogorets 1–0 CSKA Sofia
- 3 May 2026 · CSKA Sofia 1–0 Ludogorets
- 29 Apr 2026 · CSKA Sofia 0–0 Ludogorets
- 21 Apr 2026 · Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA Sofia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Cherno More Varna Win @ 1.62 - Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna · 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33