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Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lech Poznan host Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lech Poznan 1–1 Sunderland.
Going into the match, Lech Poznan had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 18. Sunderland had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lech Poznan's last 10 and 4 of Sunderland's last 10; 9 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lech Poznan averaged 2.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Sunderland averaged 2.00 scored and 1.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Lech Poznan and 1.17 from Sunderland. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 24%, against 21%, 24% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lech Poznan (green) and Sunderland (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | WLWDW | 2.40 | 1.80 | 70% | 90% |
| Sunderland | LWLLW | 1.00 | 1.50 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Sunderland Win | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Bournemouth vs AC Milan · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–2 - Celtic vs Celta Vigo · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2 - 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 3–0 - Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–6 - Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–4 - Plzen vs Levski Sofia · 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 0–4 - Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen · 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Dinamo Zagreb Win @ 1.62 · FT 2–4