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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jong AZ host Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Jong AZ had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 21. Helmond Sport had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Jong AZ's last 10 and 8 of Helmond Sport's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jong AZ averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Helmond Sport averaged 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.12 goals from Jong AZ and 1.03 from Helmond Sport. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 9%, against 51%, 22% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jong AZ (green) and Helmond Sport (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | DLWDL | 2.60 | 2.10 | 90% | 80% |
| Helmond Sport | LLDLL | 1.50 | 2.00 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Jong AZ Win | 50% | 1.85 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 46% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eerste Divisie matches that day
- Almere City FC vs Roda · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - De Graafschap vs Waalwijk · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.36 - Den Bosch vs MVV · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - NAC Breda vs Heracles · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - FC OSS vs Jong Ajax · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Vitesse vs Emmen · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50