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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Den Bosch vs MVV prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Den Bosch host MVV in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Den Bosch had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 18. MVV had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 28 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Den Bosch's last 10 and 5 of MVV's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Den Bosch averaged 1.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home MVV averaged 1.17 scored and 2.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.96 goals from Den Bosch and 1.03 from MVV. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 19%, against 54%, 22% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Den Bosch (green) and MVV (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Den Bosch Win | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eerste Divisie matches that day
- Almere City FC vs Roda · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - De Graafschap vs Waalwijk · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.36 - FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - NAC Breda vs Heracles · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - FC OSS vs Jong Ajax · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Vitesse vs Emmen · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50