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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
De Graafschap host Waalwijk in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, De Graafschap had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 24. Waalwijk had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of De Graafschap's last 10 and 7 of Waalwijk's last 10; 9 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home De Graafschap averaged 1.91 goals scored and 2.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Waalwijk averaged 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.44 goals from De Graafschap and 1.91 from Waalwijk. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 48%, against 37%, 25% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between De Graafschap (green) and Waalwijk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | LWDWL | 1.30 | 2.40 | 80% | 90% |
| Waalwijk | DLDLW | 1.90 | 1.50 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 48% | 1.91 |
| De Graafschap Win | 38% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eerste Divisie matches that day
- Almere City FC vs Roda · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Den Bosch vs MVV · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - NAC Breda vs Heracles · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - FC OSS vs Jong Ajax · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Vitesse vs Emmen · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50