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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Almere City FC vs Roda prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Almere City FC host Roda in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Almere City FC had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 8. Roda had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Almere City FC's last 10 and 5 of Roda's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Almere City FC averaged 2.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Roda averaged 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Almere City FC and 1.02 from Roda. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 25%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Almere City FC (green) and Roda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | LWWLW | 2.20 | 0.80 | 40% | 70% |
| Roda | WDLWD | 1.20 | 0.80 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| Almere City FC Win | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eerste Divisie matches that day
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.36 - Den Bosch vs MVV · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - NAC Breda vs Heracles · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - FC OSS vs Jong Ajax · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Vitesse vs Emmen · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50