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Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction and preview
4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · Chobani Stadium, Istanbul
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fenerbahçe host Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Fenerbahçe had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Liverpool had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Fenerbahçe's last 10 and 5 of Liverpool's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fenerbahçe averaged 2.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Liverpool averaged 2.38 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.97 goals from Fenerbahçe and 1.40 from Liverpool. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 26%, against 18%, 20% and 62% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fenerbahçe (green) and Liverpool (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | LLDWL | 2.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 70% |
| Liverpool | LDWWW | 1.90 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Liverpool Win | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
- Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - FC Porto vs Napoli · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 - Lens vs Como · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 - RB Leipzig vs Manchester City · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Slavia Praha vs Arsenal · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Viking vs Sabah FA · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid · 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67