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AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction and preview
4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AEK Athens FC host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, AEK Athens FC had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 16. Real Madrid had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 28 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of AEK Athens FC's last 10 and 8 of Real Madrid's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AEK Athens FC averaged 3.29 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Real Madrid averaged 1.79 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from AEK Athens FC and 1.78 from Real Madrid. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 43%, against 11%, 14% and 76% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AEK Athens FC (green) and Real Madrid (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | LLWLL | 2.30 | 1.60 | 60% | 70% |
| Real Madrid | WWWWW | 2.80 | 1.20 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid Win | 77% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Real Madrid 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Real Madrid HT & FT | 58% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
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