Home › League stats › UEFA Champions League › FC Porto vs Napoli
UEFA Champions League · International
FC Porto vs Napoli prediction and preview
4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · Estádio do Dragão, Porto
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Porto host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FC Porto had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 10. Napoli had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FC Porto's last 10 and 5 of Napoli's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Porto averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Napoli averaged 1.44 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.36 goals from FC Porto and 0.94 from Napoli. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 13%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Porto (green) and Napoli (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
- Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Lens vs Como · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 - RB Leipzig vs Manchester City · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Slavia Praha vs Arsenal · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Viking vs Sabah FA · 4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid · 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool · 4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44