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Liga Alef · Israel
FC Jerusalem vs Hapoel Sderot prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Jerusalem host Hapoel Sderot in the Liga Alef (Israel) on 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.54, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FC Jerusalem had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 7 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Hapoel Sderot had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 8, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FC Jerusalem's last 7 and 5 of Hapoel Sderot's last 8; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Jerusalem averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Hapoel Sderot averaged 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from FC Jerusalem and 1.73 from Hapoel Sderot. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 41%, against 47%, 26% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Jerusalem (green) and Hapoel Sderot (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Jerusalem | LLWDW | 1.57 | 1.29 | 71% | 43% |
| Hapoel Sderot | DWLDL | 1.63 | 1.38 | 63% | 63% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.65 |
| FC Jerusalem Win | 45% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.20 |
| FC Jerusalem HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga Alef matches that day
- Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus · 23 Oct 2026, 11:45 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.44 - Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Ironi Nesher · 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Ironi Nesher Win @ 1.57 - Holon Yermiyahu vs Tzeirey Tira · 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Holon Yermiyahu Win @ 1.62 - Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Nordia Jerusalem · 23 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Maccabi Neve Sha'anan · 23 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.66 - Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Dimona · 23 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.50 - Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit · 23 Oct 2026, 10:25 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.50 - Beitar Nahariya vs Hapoel Beit Shean · 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.67 - Ironi Beit Shemesh vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda · 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 - Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi · 23 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.28 - Hapoel Migdal HaEmek vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya · 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.52 - Maccabi K. Ata Bialik vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · Liga Alef
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50